Market lines next to the model's line and total. Cover and over chances account for the model's track record against closing lines, so they stay close to 50%.

In 2019–25 testing, the model's side went about 52% against closing spreads, right at breakeven, and bigger gaps did not do better. Read these as a second opinion, not picks. See the track record.

Best bets

Player props

Game lines

Player props

Median projection with the middle-50% range from 2019–25 outcomes at similar projections. Enter a book's line to see how often the player clears it.

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Projections assume today's active rosters. Re-run after Friday injury reports; when a teammate is ruled out, his usage is redistributed.

Team tendencies

What each offense and defense does and how often. Ranks are out of 32 for the season shown.

2026 personnel, defensive packages, coverage shells and pressure appear once 2026 participation data is published.

Play callers

Who actually calls plays for each team this week, with tendencies from every game they've called since 2022, on any team.

Fourth-down decisions

Head coaches graded on every fourth down outside the final two minutes of each half: the win probability after going for it, kicking or punting, compared with the call they made. A spot is "clear go" when going adds 1.5 or more points of win probability.

Player values

Each player's contribution in EPA per 100 snaps, isolated from teammates and opponents, from 2016–25 data with recent seasons weighted most. Higher is better on both sides of the ball.

Teams are from 2026 rosters and daily depth charts; "was" marks a player's previous team, where his value was earned. Coverage-specific values (vs Cover 2 and so on) mostly match a player's overall value; treat differences there as small.

Track record

Every number below comes from walk-forward testing: each season was predicted using only data from before it.